Topic of the week: Transpacific Rates Show Resilience Amid Global Softening Trends
Container spot freight rates on the transpacific trade to the US West Coast showed unexpected resilience this week, edging higher while most other major east-west routes declined for a third consecutive week.
According to Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI), the Shanghai–Los Angeles rate rose 2% week on week to $2,930 per 40ft container. This puts rates at approximately 34% above levels seen prior to the outbreak of the Iran conflict. Other benchmarks reflect a similar trend, with Freightos reporting Far East–US West Coast rates at $2,675 per 40 ft—around 45% higher than pre-conflict levels.
Market sentiment suggests that carriers have largely succeeded in pushing through rate increases initially introduced during the early stages of the conflict. Reports from forwarders indicate that annual contract rates for 2026 surged by as much as $1,000 per 40ft almost overnight following the escalation. Analysts attribute this to a combination of disciplined capacity management and market uncertainty.
Data from Xeneta indicates that both US West Coast and East Coast import rates from the Far East have increased by roughly 50% since the conflict began. This has been supported by strategic capacity reductions following Chinese New Year, alongside growing shipper caution.
Shippers are also beginning to front-load cargo ahead of the traditional Q3 peak season, driven by concerns over potential congestion at key Southeast Asian hubs. Some major importers are accelerating shipments to mitigate the risk of future disruptions and inventory shortages.
However, transpacific trends remain mixed. The Shanghai–New York route declined 2% this week to $3,483 per 40ft, highlighting uneven pricing dynamics across US-bound trades. Looking ahead, upward pressure may continue, particularly with carriers introducing peak season surcharges—reportedly around $2,000 per 40ft on Asia–US routes.
On the Asia–Europe corridor, rates continued to soften. The Shanghai–Rotterdam and Shanghai–Genoa legs both fell 1% week on week, settling at $2,127 and $3,039 per 40ft respectively. Carriers have started addressing persistent overcapacity, with several blank sailings announced and capacity expected to decline through May.
Despite these adjustments, the market remains imbalanced, with capacity still elevated across key European trades. Rates appear to have peaked in recent weeks, and while short-term stability is expected, attention is turning to mid-May, when carriers plan to introduce new FAK (freight all kinds) rate increases.
Carrier pricing ambitions vary significantly. Some lines are targeting around $3,500 per 40ft to North Europe and $4,500 to the Mediterranean, while others are pushing for levels closer to $4,400 across both regions, indicating ongoing uncertainty in rate recovery momentum.
