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Topic of the week: Gulf Airspace Closures Trigger Sharp Capacity Shock
Air cargo capacity on the Asia to Middle East to Europe corridor fell 26% weekend on weekend between 21 and 28 February as widespread Gulf airspace closures took effect. At the same time, direct Asia to Europe capacity increased by 13 to 14%, as airlines rerouted aircraft to bypass traditional Gulf stopovers and operate longer nonstop sectors.
The disruption highlights a structural dependency in the market. In Q4 2025, roughly 50% of China and Hong Kong to Europe capacity operated direct, while the remaining 50% relied on intermediate stops, primarily in Gulf hubs. With airspace closures across key parts of the region and avoidance of surrounding corridors, that hub based model has been abruptly exposed.
Freighter operations show how quickly networks are adapting. Between 21 and 28 February, freighter capacity via Gulf en route stops dropped 75%, while direct freighter capacity rose 34%. Some aircraft are diverting to alternative technical stops in Central Asia, but this has not fully offset the loss of connectivity through Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi. Overall lift remains materially constrained.
On a global basis, widebody passenger and freighter capacity is down 11 to 12% over the past 24 to 48 hours compared with a week earlier. The Middle East region and India are each down more than 60%. Week on week, global contraction has reached as much as 18%. With Gulf carriers representing about 13% of global international widebody and freighter capacity, the scale of disruption is significant.
India has been particularly exposed. Europe and North America routings have been lengthened, belly cargo flows have tightened, and diversion airports have faced congestion. Forwarders report booking restrictions and requests to hold cargo at origin. Early indications suggest a potential 7 to 10 day backlog even if airspace reopens quickly, with rates expected to come under upward pressure.
Fuel volatility is compounding the operational shock. Brent crude has risen sharply, jet fuel premiums have doubled, and longer routings are increasing block times and operating costs. Any sustained rise in fuel prices will feed directly into airline cost bases.
In summary, a corridor that depends on Gulf connectivity for half its capacity has lost roughly a quarter of its lift within days. While direct capacity has increased, it does not fully compensate for the loss of hub based flows. The duration of closures will determine how sharply backlogs, rates and operating costs escalate in the weeks ahead.
