Topic of the week: The potential impact of Trump’s return on the trucking industry
The Trump-Vance administration is likely to have a significant impact on the trucking industry, with potential cost implications for various aspects of the industry. One key area of focus is engine emissions, where the administration may reset standards at levels it sees as technologically feasible for internal combustion engines, lengthen timelines for compliance, and consider alternative ways to meet emissions targets, such as renewable diesel.
Another area of focus is speed limiters, which the administration may delay or repeal. This could have a significant impact on the cost and safety of trucking operations. The administration may also take a less regulatory approach to truck automation, encouraging more feedback from autonomous vehicle technology companies, which could potentially reduce the cost and complexity of implementing autonomous trucking technology.
Trade and tariffs are also likely to be a key area of focus for the Trump-Vance administration. The administration may impose higher tariffs on U.S. imports from China and other countries, which could have a positive impact on domestic economic growth and trucking demand. However, this could also lead to higher costs for trucking companies and increased competition from foreign trucking companies.
The administration may also have a significant impact on corporate taxes, cutting rates to as low as 15% for companies that make their products in the U.S. and repealing the 12% federal excise tax on heavy trucks and trailers. This could have a significant impact on the cost of doing business for trucking companies and potentially lead to increased investment in the industry.
Tort reform is another area where the Trump-Vance administration may have a significant impact. The administration may support legislation that would push cases involving truck accidents into the federal court system, which could reduce the risk of "nuclear verdicts" against trucking companies. This could have a significant impact on the cost of doing business for trucking companies and potentially lead to increased investment in the industry.
The administration may also have a significant impact on truck parking, reintroducing legislation that would dedicate $755 million in grant money over the next three years specifically for expanding truck parking. This could have a significant impact on the cost and availability of truck parking for trucking companies.
Independent contractors are also likely to be a key area of focus for the Trump-Vance administration. The administration may return to a policy that makes it easier for the Department of Labor to find that a worker is an independent contractor rather than an employee. This could have a significant impact on the cost and complexity of hiring and managing trucking operations.
Finally, the administration may have significant influence on the direction of the next infrastructure bill, including paring back environmental provisions and setting aside more money for expanding highway and bridge capacity. This could have a significant impact on the cost and availability of infrastructure for trucking companies and potentially lead to increased investment in the industry.
Sea:
- Over the last two weeks China/East Asia to North America West Coast spot rates have increased by 2.7% from $5,256/FEU to $5,403/FEU according to Freightos data.
- China/East Asia to North America East Coast spot rates have fallen over the last two weeks, decreasing by 12% to $5,219/FEU.
- Global container spot prices have fallen over the last two weeks, and are now sitting at $3,315/FEU, a 2.8% decrease over the last two weeks and a 172% increase from spot rates this time in 2023 according to the Freightos Baltic Index (FBX)
Air:
- Global Air Freight spot rates currently sit at $2.62, as rates continue to fluctuate according to the Freightos Air Freight Index (FAX)
- Europe to Northern America spot rates currently sit at $2.24 (100-3000kg), says FAX, increasing by 25.1%
- Europe to Asia, Greater China spot rates currently sit at $1.17 (100-3000kg), says FAX, decreasing by 4.8%
That’s all for this week’s update…
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