Topic of the Week - NRF Sales Growth Expected for 2024 Holiday Season
The National Retail Federation (NRF) has released its winter holiday spending forecast, predicting total holiday sales in 2024 will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. This translates to a total of £979.5 billion to £989 billion in holiday spending, up from £955.6 billion in the same period last year.
The NRF attributes this growth to a strong job market and wage growth, which will continue to support consumer spending. Online shopping is expected to be a primary contributor to overall retail sales growth, with non-store sales projected to increase by 8-9% to a total of £295.1 billion to £297.9 billion.
Retailers are preparing for increased consumer demand by hiring additional seasonal workers, with the NRF expecting between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal hires this year. This is a decrease from last year's 509,000 seasonal hires, but still reflects the industry's optimism about the holiday season.
The NRF's holiday forecast is based on economic modelling using various key economic indicators, including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation, and previous monthly retail sales releases. The organisation defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31 and excludes automobile dealers, petrol stations, and restaurants to focus on core retail.
Looking ahead to the 2024 holiday shopping season, the NRF is projecting a 2.5% to 3.5% increase in total holiday sales compared to 2023. This would result in total holiday spending of between £979.5 billion and £989 billion in November and December 2024.
Online sales are expected to drive growth, with a projected 8% to 9% year-over-year increase, accounting for approximately 30.1% of total sales. This would put online holiday sales between £295.1 billion and £297.9 billion, up from £273.3 billion in 2023.
The NRF attributes the strong forecast to a healthy economy, with household finances in good shape and an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season. However, households are expected to spend more cautiously due to the shorter period between Thanksgiving and Christmas (26 days) and the potential economic impacts of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Retailers are expected to hire fewer seasonal workers this year, with the NRF forecasting between 400,000 and 500,000 hires, compared to 509,000 in 2023. Despite this, the NRF remains optimistic about the pace of economic activity and growth projected in the second half of the year.
Overall, the NRF's forecast suggests a strong holiday shopping season, driven by online sales growth and a healthy economy.
eCommerce Market Stats
See some statistics relating to this week’s topics in the eCommerce market below.
eCommerce stats
Holiday Sales Stats:
Total holiday sales in 2024: £979.5 billion to £989 billion
Growth in total holiday sales: 2.5% to 3.5% over 2023
Total holiday spending in 2023: £955.6 billion
Online Shopping Stats:
Non-store sales (online shopping) in 2024: £295.1 billion to £297.9 billion
Growth in non-store sales: 8-9% over 2023
Percentage of total sales from online shopping: 30.1%
Online holiday sales in 2023: £273.3 billion
Seasonal Hiring Stats:
Number of seasonal hires in 2024: 400,000 to 500,000
That’s all for this week…
If you would like to read more industry related news and insights, check out our articles below, or get in touch to discuss our services!
